How we prepare for the day after Election Day
As election day approaches, we want to share our analysis of what the polling means for the election outcome, and what we need to get ready for in the weeks after election day.
This election campaign is very different from the one we were expecting just a few months ago. Trudeau’s resignation and the threats from Trump have completely transformed the dynamics of this election in record time.
Less than 100 days ago, we were bracing to resist an impending Conservative landslide. Now, it’s looking unlikely that Poilievre’s Conservatives will win this election. That’s good news.
To be clear, a Pierre Poilievre government poses a grave threat to our vision of a Canada where everyone has access to an affordable home, the ability to put food on the table, and the promise of a safe future on a liveable planet.
We need to continue to work to ensure this doesn’t become a reality — especially because if the historic polling shifts of the past few weeks have taught us anything, nothing is a foregone conclusion.
But right now at the time of writing, with a Liberal surge in the polls, it’s looking likely that this election will deliver a Liberal win – whether a majority or a plurality of seats. As we look ahead to our work after the election, we want to take some time to share our thinking about what that means — and what we think the Leadnow community needs to get ready for in the weeks and months ahead.
What have the Carney Liberals promised?
The Carney Liberals’ promises so far have been a mixed bag. On the one hand, they’ve pledged to start a new government agency solely dedicated to building homes — something that, if done right, could help address the housing crisis in Canada. Their platform also includes support for building out a national electricity grid to provide low-cost energy to families across the country.
But on the other hand, they’ve also proposed axing tax increases for the rich by rolling back proposals to change the capital gains inclusion rate. Carney has re-opened the possibility of building more pipelines when the country badly needs investment in sustainable energy systems and good green jobs. And he has talked about changes to ‘operational spending’ — which can often be policy-speak for cuts.
To be clear, we shouldn’t expect any government to deliver what we want on a silver platter. But we need to be clear-eyed that a Carney Liberal government will not hand us what we want and in some key ways, will likely do the opposite of what we need. Based on what we’ve seen so far, we think we need to be prepared for the next Liberal government to be further to the right than the Trudeau Liberals.
That said, Carney’s short stint in politics so far also gives us reason to believe that there’s a lot to still play for. His language on pipelines, for instance, has been more hesitant in French than in English – recognizing the unpopularity of new pipelines in Quebec. That shows us that he can be pressured by public opinion and political realities.
This all means that if the Carney Liberals win the election on April 28, we will likely need to play defense to fight to keep the things we want and avoid rolling backwards, as well as offense to fight for the solutions we need.
Key lessons from 2015
When Stephen Harper was defeated in 2015, the mood among progressives was one of hope. Justin Trudeau won a Liberal majority – unthinkable just months earlier – on a wave of progressive promises. Indigenous rights. Climate action. Voting reform.
While some promises were met, Trudeau also broke his promise on voting reform and bought a pipeline. It was disappointing, to put it mildly.
This was a key lesson for us from 2015: defeating the Harper Conservatives was critically important, but it wasn’t enough. Without sustained pressure, the Trudeau Liberals didn’t feel as accountable to the public to deliver promises like electoral reform. While we did advance some important social and climate policy wins, in many important areas, the Trudeau government maintained the status quo.
Elections are important because they determine the terrain on which we fight our battles. Just as a Harper government would have been a huge step backward for us, a Poilievre government would be disastrous for our community and the things we care about. But they are not the end of the fight.
In the home stretch
We’re in the home stretch of our Raise the Bar election campaign, and we’re not taking our eye off the ball. From now until election day, the Leadnow community and our Election Squads — teams of volunteers across the country — are doing all we can to stop the Conservatives and get our Raise the Bar Champions elected.
Election Squads across the country are postering in their neighbourhoods in key ridings with messages that expose the real Conservative agenda:
Hundreds of Leadnow supporters have crowdfunded a national ad campaign arguing that under Poilievre, the rich will get richer and the rest of us will pay — here’s a photo of one of our ads in one of Vancouver’s busiest transit stations:
And because we will need champions ready to stand alongside us and fight from within Parliament Hill, Leadnow volunteers are also knocking on doors across the country to help elect our Raise the Bar Champions. These 18 candidates have committed to stand with us to deliver affordable housing for all, take action to build the clean energy economy we need, and fight to ensure corporations are paying their fair share.
What is at stake
Our futures are under threat with the rise of far-right wing populists in the US and around the world. In Canada, we are experiencing unprecedented economic and annexation threats from the US and witnessing the destruction of democratic institutions designed to protect and keep people and the planet healthy, safe and informed.
A lot is up in the air right now, and things could still shift. But if there’s one thing to take away, it is this. The only thing that stands between an unregulated path of least resistance or succumbing to Trumpian demands is all of us, working together, and getting organized. Now and in the coming years. To protect our communities and the environments we all hold dear in the face of fascism, climate disasters and a global recession brought upon us by one authoritarian man’s consolidation of power and terror.
No matter what happens on election night, we look forward to continuing that fight alongside you and the rest of the Leadnow community.